EU emissions plummet... and China's may have peaked

As the world battled the intensifying impacts of the climate crisis in 2024 – from record-breaking heatwaves to devastating floods – an important, and perhaps underappreciated, trend emerged from the data: emissions in some parts of the world have not only slowed but dropped sharply. This signals that, despite the gravity of our environmental challenges, change is not only possible – it is already underway.

In October 2024, new data revealed that greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union (EU) fell by a remarkable 8% in 2023. The drop places emissions across the bloc at 37% below 1990 levels – a considerable achievement and a beacon of hope amid otherwise gloomy climate forecasts.

Meanwhile, experts have begun to suggest that China – the world’s single largest emitter – may finally have reached its peak emissions. Could this be a pivotal moment in the story of our planet’s recovery?

The EU: Policy, Power, and the Promise of Net Zero

The EU’s emissions plunge is largely credited to two key developments: the closure of coal-fired power plants and an accelerated rollout of renewable energy infrastructure.

From Germany’s ambitious Energiewende policy to Denmark’s wind power revolution, the EU has steadily pushed fossil fuels out of its energy mix. In 2023, for the first time, wind and solar collectively produced more electricity in the EU than fossil fuels.

But it’s not just about power generation. Stricter vehicle emissions standards, investment in energy-efficient buildings, and a shift towards sustainable agriculture have also contributed to the decline. Importantly, many of these actions have been driven by the EU’s legally binding climate targets: the European Climate Law mandates a 55% reduction in emissions by 2030, relative to 1990.

Still, the European Environment Agency warns that, under current policies, the EU may only achieve a 43% cut by the decade’s end – falling short of its goal. This discrepancy raises critical questions about implementation and enforcement, and whether the ambition exists not only in policy but in practice.

China: a possible peak in the world’s emissions giant

If the EU represents steady, policy-led decarbonisation, China presents a more complex picture. The country remains the largest single contributor to global emissions, largely due to its enormous reliance on coal and rapid industrialisation. Yet in 2023, something extraordinary may have occurred: Chinese emissions, for the first time, showed signs of peaking.

This potential turning point comes amidst China's investments in renewable energy. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), China added more solar capacity in 2023 than the rest of the world combined. Wind energy, battery storage, and electric vehicles are all booming. Even though coal use remains high, its share of the national energy mix is declining year-on-year.

A mix of economic restructuring, slowing urbanisation, and stronger environmental regulations are also playing a role. As China shifts from heavy industry to services and tech, its emissions profile is changing, too. While definitive confirmation of a peak is still pending, many climate scientists are cautiously optimistic. If true, it would represent a monumental milestone, given China’s influence on the global carbon budget.

Global context: a mixed bag

While emissions dropped in the EU and possibly peaked in China, global greenhouse gas levels still rose in 2023 – a reminder of the steep hill humanity must climb. The primary culprits were developing and fossil-fuel-dependent nations, where economic pressures often clash with climate goals.

• India, for example, continues to grow its coal fleet to meet energy demand, despite also investing heavily in renewables.
• Oil-rich nations in the Middle East expanded production, buoyed by high energy prices.
• The United States, while showing regional progress in places like California and New York, saw emissions increase due to a rebound in industrial activity post-pandemic.

This divergence underscores a critical truth: we are no longer battling ignorance or denial. The world knows what is happening and what must be done. The challenge now lies in fairness, finance, and speed.

What can we learn from the EU’s approach?

The EU’s emissions story offers valuable lessons. Chief among them is the power of consistent policy frameworks. By embedding climate targets into law, creating carbon pricing mechanisms like the Emissions Trading System (ETS), and investing in clean infrastructure, the EU has demonstrated how structured governance can drive real progress.

Public support has also been vital. EU citizens are increasingly aware of the climate emergency and generally back greener lifestyles, even if it means changes in behaviour or cost. Education campaigns, subsidies for home retrofits, and incentives for electric vehicles have played a role in building this consensus.

However, the EU also illustrates the limits of progress without global cooperation. The bloc’s relative affluence, stable institutions, and mature infrastructure allow it to decarbonise faster than many parts of the world. For global progress, richer nations must offer financial and technological support to those still dependent on fossil fuels.

Is the world turning a corner?

The IEA’s 2024 report noted that emissions in advanced economies fell to a 50-year low – the lowest since the 1970s. This signals a genuine decoupling of economic growth and carbon emissions, at least in developed nations. Meanwhile, renewables are now the cheapest form of new energy generation across most of the globe. These facts matter because they suggest that not only is change possible – it is becoming inevitable.

Even in nations with less robust climate policies, market forces are beginning to shift the energy landscape. Oil majors are increasingly investing in green hydrogen, carbon capture, and offshore wind. Institutional investors are pressuring companies to disclose climate risks and align with net-zero targets. Also, the number of countries with net-zero pledges continues to grow, with over 130 having made formal commitments.

Looking ahead: from peak to precedent

If China’s emissions have indeed peaked, it could set a precedent for other developing economies. The transition will not be easy, and the temptation to extract and burn fossil fuels for economic gain will remain. But with the right international support, the right incentives, and the right leadership, a global shift is within reach.

The EU must now ensure it stays on course. This means strengthening enforcement mechanisms, accelerating decarbonisation in sectors like aviation and agriculture, and resisting backsliding due to political or economic pressures.

Globally, the message is clear: there is no single path to decarbonisation, but there is a shared destination. What we are witnessing is not yet victory – but it is momentum. And, in the climate fight, momentum is everything.

A fragile but real hope...

Hope, as ever, lies not in what has already been done, but in what we choose to do next.

Carl Dodd, Property Revolutions Ltd.