Designing cities for the future: the changing cost of independence

The way we move around our towns and cities is going to change dramatically over the next 20-25 years. Ageing populations, technology shifts, climate pressures and rising costs will reshape not only how we travel, but how our neighbourhoods function. For millions of people, mobility is more than a practical question - it is the foundation of independence, dignity and community life.

For years, the sustainability debate has been dominated by discussions about vehicles: EVs, emissions standards, charging infrastructure, and the decline of the combustion engine. Yet the real transformation ahead is not just about what we drive, but whether we drive at all.

Mobility in the 2040s will look very different to today, and the most successful cities will be those that design for older residents, changing lifestyles, and the need for shared, flexible movement options.

In this context, the recent resurgence of an interest in 'bangernomics' - the use of older, cheaper cars - sparks a thought: '...what is the future cost of personal independence in a world where private car ownership may no longer make sense?'

An ageing population... and the mobility challenge

By the early 2040s, one in four people in the UK will be over 65. This demographic shift will transform everything from housing to healthcare - but nowhere is the impact clearer than in transport. Older adults typically face: reduced physical mobility; a declining confidence in driving; an increased reliance on health services and daily amenities, and social isolation (if transport options are poor).

Many UK cities and towns are already struggling to serve older residents. Pavements are uneven, bus services are patchy, rail stations often lack lifts, and local amenities have been centralised out of walking distance.

If we don’t rethink mobility, we risk designing cities that effectively trap large numbers of older adults in their homes - precisely when independence matters most.

Will this mark the end of traditional public transport?

The conventional model of scheduled buses and fixed-route systems is increasingly mismatched to the needs of older passengers and modern cities. Low-frequency services do not serve people with unpredictable schedules or mobility limitations. Long walks to bus stops exclude many older residents entirely.

Meanwhile, councils face spiralling operating costs, ageing fleets and chronic driver shortages. Without intervention, many routes will continue to shrink or disappear. This is where MaaS: Mobility as a Service, comes in.

The rise of 'Uber-style' public transport

Companies like Uber have reshaped expectations around convenience: tap, hail, arrive. MaaS applies this on a civic scale.

Instead of expecting people to travel to the bus stop, the bus comes to them. Instead of waiting for a fixed timetable, vehicles arrive on-demand.
Instead of rigid routes, journeys are dynamic, optimised by algorithms.

This system could include: autonomous shuttles; ride-sharing minibuses; accessible vehicles designed for mobility aids, community electric pods and demand-responsive transport controlled via apps or by telephone booking.

Some cities are already trialling this. In the US, Uber pitches ride-sharing as a public transit mode, partnering with cities to fill gaps in bus networks. In Europe, several pilot areas have replaced fixed bus routes with responsive, flexible services for older residents. The result is something between a taxi, a bus and a community car-share - all powered by electrification, data and user needs.

For older adults, this could be transformative. It enables: shorter walking distances; personalised pick-up points; safer journeys; the ability to stay independent for longer, and, crucially, less social isolation.

If designed well, MaaS could be one of the most significant social innovations of the next generation.

Autonomous vehicles: opportunity and anxiety

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) amplify this potential. In theory, AVs could offer: affordable on-demand rides; safer roads (due to fewer collisions), and even vehicles that reposition themselves where needed.

However, when imagining a future with driverless shuttles gliding through towns, we must consider that trust in self-driving cars may be low among older adults; their safety must be proven and guaranteed. Also, easy-to-use interfaces (apps, call centres, voice commands) must be universal. Communities must feel AVs are not replacing, but enhancing independence.

Of course, AVs alone will not solve the ageing mobility challenge, but paired with a humane, user-focused transport system, they could radically improve older people's quality of life.

The changing meaning of independence

This brings us back to bangernomics. The reason older, cheaper cars remain appealing is not just cost - it is more to do with control and independence. Private vehicles are symbols of autonomy, and that emotional value does not disappear simply because technology shifts.

But we must confront a hard truth: keeping everyone behind the wheel indefinitely is impossible. Over the next 20-25 years, the 'cost of personal independence' will rise, not just financially, but environmentally and socially.

Where Bangernomics is a snapshot of the present; MaaS is a blueprint for the future.

Designing cities that work for older adults

To prepare for this transition, urban design must evolve. Cities need to:

• create walkable neighbourhoods

• place essential services closer to homes

• integrate benches, shelters, toilets and accessible routes

• retrofit pavements, lighting and crossings

• support mobility scooters and similar vehicles, and,

• ensure that MaaS vehicles can reach residential areas.

Homes must connect to this ecosystem, too. In this way, retrofit becomes a crucial part of the puzzle, as energy-efficient homes keep older residents healthy. In retrofitted homes there is no need for householders to make frequent car trips to warm public spaces. More accessible homes can also reduce reliance on carers, or transport services.

As the population ages, people will spend more time at home, so heating, cooling and accessibility will become major health factors. Meanwhile, mobility systems will shift outward, reducing the necessity for every household to own a private vehicle.

Preparing for a radically different mobility future

The next 20-25 years will bring seismic shifts in how we move through our cities. MaaS, autonomous vehicles, ageing populations and climate realities will reshape independence in ways we are only beginning to understand.

Bangernomics reflects today’s struggles, but tomorrow’s mobility will require more than cheap cars. It will demand systems that prioritise dignity, fairness and accessibility. Retrofits, urban design and the transport reform must be aligned, so that older adults are not left behind in the transition.

If we design cities for the people who need them most, we design cities that work for everyone.

Carl Dodd, Property Revolutions Ltd.